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24pt;">“风险”理论源于十九世纪后期的经济学研宄，如今已被用于各个社会科 学及自然科学领域。</span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 9pt; text-indent: 24pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">风险表示研究对象遭受危害或损失的可能性</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[74]</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">，虽然不同的研究对象或学 科领域对于风险的定义各不相同，但是对于风险的研宄主要包含三个要素：目标事件的过程及状态、事件的概率及事件的影响后果，这三个要素也被称为风 险的三兀概念</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[75]</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">。之所以要进行风险评估是希望在事前就能得到对象的风险预 报信息，在此基础上通过风险决策等行动最大程度地减少因为风险而带来的各 种损失。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">MontagueD</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">.</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">F</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">.</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[76]</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">将风险评估方法分为3类：定性的、半定量的及定量的风 险评估方法。评估方法的选择主要取决于风险分析过程中可获得的信息量的多 少。不同的风险评估方法在分析问题的深度、广度上都是不一样的。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">定性风险分析是一种典型的模糊分析方法，可以快捷地对资源、威胁、脆 弱性进行系统评估，并对现有的防范措施进行评价；从主观的角度对风险成分 进行排序，因此常被首选。定量风险分析是按照设备的更新费用，每个资源、 冲击的费用，每次威胁攻击的定量频次，为资源、威胁和脆弱性提供的一套系 统分析手段；分析所形成的量化值，将被用来计算年度损失概率。定量分析方 法对风险的量化，大大增加了与运行机制和各项规范、制度等紧密结合的可操 作性，分析的目标能够更加具体准确，其可信度显然会大大增加，这必将为应 急计划的制定，提供更可信赖的依据</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[77]</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">定性的风险评估方法主要有危险检查法、危险和可操作性分析法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">(</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">HAZOP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)、 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">专家调查法、失效模式及影响分析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FMEA</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">和失效模式及影响危害度分 析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FMECA</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">等。故障树分析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FTA</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)、</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">事件树分析方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">ETA</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">既可 用于定性分析也可用于定量分析。概率风险评估方法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">PRA</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">) </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[78]</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">是定性、定量 相合，以定量分析为主的风险评价方法。此外，系统工程中的层次分析法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">AHP</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)、 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">模糊综合评判法</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">FCE</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">)</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">也是风险评估中常用方法。但层次分析法中定性成分 较大，指标过多致使计算复杂；模糊综合评价法虽能解决评价指标模糊性问题， 但没考虑指标间的相关性问题；故有些学者引入贝叶斯网络</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">（</span><span class="17" style="font-family: Georgia; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">BN</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">) </span><span class="15" style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 9pt; vertical-align: super;">[79]</span><span class="15" style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: -1pt; font-size: 9pt;">方法融合 </span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">有向因果图和概率论进行风险分析。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:0.0000pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">风险评估在风险分析过程中占有极其重要的地位，如何对系统的各种危险 及其产生原因进行综合分析、评估，并提出合理、有效的控制风险的方案，使 系统的风险层次尽可能降低是一项十分重要和有意义的工作。系统工程风险评 估方法已经取得很大进展，但仍存在三个主要技术难点，一是评价对象的相关 性处理，二是事件机理的不确定性分析，三是人因可靠性分析，所以需要开展 新的风险评估技术研究。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:13.1500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">本文</span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;mso-font-kerning:1.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language:AR-SA"><a href="http://www.bethel-cnc.com/"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">加工中心</span></a></span></b><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;">故障风险评估主要涉及评价对象的故障相关性问题，需要根 据具体关联情况综合考虑各种可能的因素进行综合评价。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">本文采摘自“基于故障率相关的加工中心的可靠性及风险评估”，因为编辑困难导致有些函数、表格、图片、内容无法显示，有需要者可以在网络中查找相关文章！</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:13.1500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:9.0pt; font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">本文由伯特利数控整理发表文章均来自网络仅供学习参考，转载请注明！</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt"> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="NewStyle18" style="margin-top:0.0000pt; margin-right:0.0000pt; margin-bottom:13.1500pt; margin-left:0.0000pt; text-indent:25.0000pt; mso-pagination:none; text-align:justify; text-justify:inter-ideograph; "><span style="font-family: 宋体; letter-spacing: 0pt; font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div> <div class="blank30"></div> <!-- tag --> <div 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